Resumen

The general population is concerned about the probable devastating effects of pandemic H1N1 2009. Based upon the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, scientific publications and theories, the idea of swine flu parties to achieve passive immunity against pandemic H1N1 2009 has been proposed. Public health officials have asked the general public not to resort to this method. However, no concrete evidence of the reasoning behind the recommendation has been given. In this paper, we have dynamically modeled the effect of swine flu parties on the immunity achieved and associated mortality for a period of two years. The simulations show that the public should not organize or participate in swine flu parties as they will likely increase swine flu-associated mortality.

Palabras clave: System dynamics swine flu parties pandemic H1N1 2009 passive immunity.

2009-12-14   |   831 visitas   |   Evalua este artículo 0 valoraciones

Vol. 3 Núm.10. Noviembre 2009 Pags. 739-743 J Infect Developing Countries 2009; 3(10)